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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5521Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9370Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%6.7%75
10–20%15.9%10.8%194
20–30%25.0%25.6%563
30–40%34.7%35.2%213
40–50%44.9%40.0%175
50–60%54.9%57.4%115
60–70%64.6%77.1%70
70–80%74.7%78.1%32
80–90%85.5%86.4%22
90–100%93.7%100.0%11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 08 Oct 2026 · 15:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home49.74% Draw24.77% Away25.49%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home49.62% Draw24.81% Away25.57%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home49.50% Draw24.26% Away26.24%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home49.50% Draw24.25% Away26.24%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home49.55% Draw24.26% Away26.20%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home50.75% Draw24.08% Away25.17%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home50.75% Draw24.08% Away25.17%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home50.75% Draw24.08% Away25.17%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home50.75% Draw24.08% Away25.17%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home50.75% Draw24.08% Away25.17%
    0–1 Missed
  11. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home50.73% Draw24.00% Away25.27%
    0–1 Missed
  12. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home49.53% Draw24.19% Away26.28%
    0–1 Missed
  13. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home48.05% Draw25.93% Away26.02%
    0–1 Missed
  14. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Roeselare Daisel Thes Sport
    Home39.18% Draw33.29% Away27.53%
    0–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.