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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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486graded matches
0.5460Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9274Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 14 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%7.3%82
10–20%15.9%14.4%202
20–30%24.8%22.1%538
30–40%34.5%32.2%202
40–50%44.8%51.1%180
50–60%54.7%57.3%110
60–70%64.4%74.2%66
70–80%74.4%78.3%46
80–90%84.9%77.8%18
90–100%93.9%92.9%14

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (486)

Updated 14 Oct 2026 · 20:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Home50.45% Draw25.68% Away23.87%
    4–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Home47.49% Draw25.95% Away26.56%
    4–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Home47.57% Draw26.07% Away26.36%
    4–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Home47.57% Draw26.07% Away26.36%
    4–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Home47.57% Draw26.07% Away26.36%
    4–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  7. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  8. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  9. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  10. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  11. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  12. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  13. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  14. Published Second League · Montenegro
    Rudar Berane
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.