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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5794Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9776Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.5%10.2%49
10–20%16.3%19.2%219
20–30%24.7%21.6%560
30–40%35.1%35.2%230
40–50%44.9%48.7%191
50–60%54.6%56.2%105
60–70%64.2%67.5%80
70–80%74.1%66.7%39
80–90%85.5%84.6%13
90–100%92.5%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 31 Oct 2026 · 12:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home48.48% Draw27.69% Away23.83%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home57.73% Draw24.17% Away18.10%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home57.72% Draw24.18% Away18.10%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home57.66% Draw24.20% Away18.13%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home57.66% Draw24.21% Away18.13%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home57.66% Draw24.21% Away18.13%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home57.66% Draw24.21% Away18.13%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home55.06% Draw24.92% Away20.01%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home53.43% Draw25.30% Away21.27%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home51.32% Draw27.54% Away21.13%
    0–1 Missed
  11. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home51.48% Draw21.66% Away26.86%
    0–1 Missed
  12. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home51.48% Draw21.66% Away26.86%
    0–1 Missed
  13. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home51.48% Draw21.66% Away26.86%
    0–1 Missed
  14. Published Brasiliense B · Brazil
    Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF
    Home42.42% Draw29.02% Away28.56%
    0–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.