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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5955Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9988Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.5%10.5%19
10–20%16.3%11.5%182
20–30%25.3%27.1%621
30–40%34.8%32.7%254
40–50%44.8%41.5%188
50–60%54.7%57.1%133
60–70%63.9%73.4%64
70–80%73.9%76.9%26
80–90%84.4%50.0%4
90–100%--0

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 12 Oct 2026 · 01:16 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home50.70% Draw27.00% Away22.30%
    3–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home51.00% Draw26.88% Away22.13%
    3–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home51.00% Draw26.88% Away22.13%
    3–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home51.00% Draw26.88% Away22.13%
    3–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home51.00% Draw26.88% Away22.13%
    3–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home51.00% Draw26.88% Away22.13%
    3–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home51.26% Draw26.79% Away21.95%
    3–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home49.88% Draw27.06% Away23.06%
    3–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home48.69% Draw28.45% Away22.86%
    3–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home53.99% Draw25.08% Away20.93%
    3–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home53.99% Draw25.08% Away20.93%
    3–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home47.85% Draw25.10% Away27.05%
    3–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Linense Conil
    Home34.75% Draw32.78% Away32.47%
    3–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.