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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5907Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9900Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%0.0%36
10–20%16.0%17.2%204
20–30%25.1%25.4%571
30–40%34.5%32.6%236
40–50%44.8%48.0%179
50–60%54.7%54.2%131
60–70%65.1%57.3%75
70–80%73.7%79.2%24
80–90%84.6%100.0%7
90–100%93.7%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 04:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home42.29% Draw27.46% Away30.25%
    3–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home42.37% Draw27.42% Away30.20%
    3–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home42.38% Draw27.42% Away30.20%
    3–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home42.38% Draw27.42% Away30.20%
    3–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home42.38% Draw27.42% Away30.20%
    3–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home42.38% Draw27.42% Away30.20%
    3–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home48.57% Draw26.69% Away24.74%
    3–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home47.44% Draw26.87% Away25.69%
    3–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home47.82% Draw26.50% Away25.68%
    3–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home41.10% Draw27.49% Away31.41%
    3–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home41.10% Draw27.49% Away31.41%
    3–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home41.10% Draw27.49% Away31.41%
    3–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Kifissos Asteras Stavros
    Home37.63% Draw29.65% Away32.72%
    3–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.