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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5708Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9606Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%7.6%79
10–20%15.9%16.2%235
20–30%24.7%25.1%521
30–40%34.7%32.5%209
40–50%44.7%47.0%164
50–60%54.5%53.4%103
60–70%64.2%62.2%90
70–80%74.6%75.6%45
80–90%85.3%79.2%24
90–100%94.4%100.0%9

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 15:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home55.06% Draw24.10% Away20.84%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home55.67% Draw24.57% Away19.76%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home55.67% Draw24.57% Away19.76%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home66.56% Draw20.51% Away12.93%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home66.56% Draw20.51% Away12.93%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home66.56% Draw20.51% Away12.93%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home66.56% Draw20.51% Away12.93%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home65.55% Draw21.01% Away13.44%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home63.31% Draw21.75% Away14.94%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home65.05% Draw20.35% Away14.59%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home59.11% Draw21.97% Away18.92%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home59.11% Draw21.97% Away18.92%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home59.11% Draw21.97% Away18.92%
    1–1 Missed
  14. Published First NL · Croatia
    Segesta Sisak Karlovac 1919
    Home34.46% Draw33.73% Away31.81%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.