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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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486graded matches
0.5519Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9364Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 14 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.3%8.1%37
10–20%16.4%10.9%202
20–30%25.0%22.7%547
30–40%34.2%33.9%257
40–50%44.6%48.6%177
50–60%54.6%58.2%122
60–70%64.1%73.6%72
70–80%74.6%94.3%35
80–90%86.3%77.8%9
90–100%--0

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (486)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 12:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home47.72% Draw26.90% Away25.38%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home47.76% Draw26.83% Away25.42%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home46.97% Draw26.81% Away26.22%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home47.15% Draw26.80% Away26.05%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home47.15% Draw26.80% Away26.05%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home47.15% Draw26.80% Away26.05%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home47.15% Draw26.80% Away26.05%
    2–2 Missed
  8. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home47.15% Draw26.80% Away26.05%
    2–2 Missed
  9. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home36.10% Draw31.15% Away32.75%
    2–2 Missed
  10. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home59.04% Draw22.98% Away17.98%
    2–2 Missed
  11. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home42.97% Draw43.93% Away13.09%
    2–2 Correct pick
  12. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home42.97% Draw43.93% Away13.09%
    2–2 Correct pick
  13. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Albacete II Atlético Paso
    Home37.26% Draw38.19% Away24.55%
    2–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.