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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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499graded matches
0.6087Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0141Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%4.7%43
10–20%15.7%16.3%208
20–30%25.0%29.8%564
30–40%34.5%29.7%256
40–50%44.5%40.6%187
50–60%54.8%53.2%109
60–70%64.5%53.9%76
70–80%74.3%76.3%38
80–90%84.9%92.9%14
90–100%92.0%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 14:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home16.71% Draw25.07% Away58.23%
    0–3 Correct pick
  2. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home20.77% Draw26.63% Away52.60%
    0–3 Correct pick
  3. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home43.82% Draw28.17% Away28.00%
    0–3 Missed
  4. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home43.81% Draw28.19% Away28.00%
    0–3 Missed
  5. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home46.40% Draw26.66% Away26.94%
    0–3 Missed
  6. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home46.40% Draw26.66% Away26.94%
    0–3 Missed
  7. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home46.38% Draw26.45% Away27.17%
    0–3 Missed
  8. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home46.38% Draw26.45% Away27.17%
    0–3 Missed
  9. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home46.34% Draw26.50% Away27.16%
    0–3 Missed
  10. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home44.15% Draw25.48% Away30.37%
    0–3 Missed
  11. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home44.15% Draw25.48% Away30.37%
    0–3 Missed
  12. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home44.15% Draw25.48% Away30.37%
    0–3 Missed
  13. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home44.15% Draw25.48% Away30.37%
    0–3 Missed
  14. Published Gulf Cup of Nations · World
    Oman Saudi Arabia
    Home42.33% Draw29.03% Away28.63%
    0–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.