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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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499graded matches
0.6087Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0141Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%4.7%43
10–20%15.7%16.3%208
20–30%25.0%29.8%564
30–40%34.5%29.7%256
40–50%44.5%40.6%187
50–60%54.8%53.2%109
60–70%64.5%53.9%76
70–80%74.3%76.3%38
80–90%84.9%92.9%14
90–100%92.0%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 14:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Home54.56% Draw25.19% Away20.25%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Home54.56% Draw25.23% Away20.21%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Home54.56% Draw25.23% Away20.21%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Home54.56% Draw25.23% Away20.21%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Home54.56% Draw25.23% Away20.21%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Home49.95% Draw26.08% Away23.97%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Home48.73% Draw26.29% Away24.98%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Home47.27% Draw28.04% Away24.70%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Home54.96% Draw25.03% Away20.01%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  11. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  12. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  13. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Aoiz Gazte Berriak
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.