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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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482graded matches
0.6020Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0033Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 18 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%2.7%37
10–20%16.1%19.2%151
20–30%25.2%25.3%609
30–40%34.8%33.2%235
40–50%44.7%48.1%208
50–60%54.7%50.5%111
60–70%64.5%56.9%58
70–80%74.6%72.7%22
80–90%83.7%100.0%10
90–100%95.4%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (482)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 11:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home57.83% Draw21.59% Away20.58%
    0–3 Missed
  2. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home58.66% Draw21.30% Away20.04%
    0–3 Missed
  3. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home58.66% Draw21.30% Away20.04%
    0–3 Missed
  4. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home58.66% Draw21.30% Away20.04%
    0–3 Missed
  5. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home58.66% Draw21.30% Away20.04%
    0–3 Missed
  6. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home57.01% Draw21.84% Away21.15%
    0–3 Missed
  7. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home57.01% Draw21.84% Away21.15%
    0–3 Missed
  8. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home57.48% Draw21.50% Away21.02%
    0–3 Missed
  9. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home57.48% Draw21.50% Away21.02%
    0–3 Missed
  10. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home46.85% Draw23.78% Away29.37%
    0–3 Missed
  11. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home46.85% Draw23.78% Away29.37%
    0–3 Missed
  12. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home46.85% Draw23.78% Away29.37%
    0–3 Missed
  13. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home46.85% Draw23.78% Away29.37%
    0–3 Missed
  14. Published FA Trophy · England
    Plymouth Parkway Bath City
    Home42.72% Draw28.99% Away28.30%
    0–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.