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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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480graded matches
0.5648Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9529Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 20 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.2%4.5%66
10–20%16.3%16.2%198
20–30%24.8%23.9%518
30–40%34.4%31.8%239
40–50%44.8%48.3%180
50–60%54.7%56.9%116
60–70%64.8%64.7%68
70–80%75.6%84.0%25
80–90%83.9%83.3%18
90–100%95.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (480)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 14:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home69.39% Draw17.80% Away12.81%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home69.39% Draw17.80% Away12.81%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home49.29% Draw22.49% Away28.22%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home49.32% Draw22.45% Away28.22%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home49.75% Draw22.29% Away27.97%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home49.75% Draw22.29% Away27.97%
    2–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home39.27% Draw22.95% Away37.79%
    2–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home39.27% Draw22.95% Away37.79%
    2–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home37.90% Draw25.54% Away36.56%
    2–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home37.90% Draw25.54% Away36.56%
    2–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home57.98% Draw17.76% Away24.26%
    2–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home65.69% Draw17.74% Away16.57%
    2–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home65.69% Draw17.74% Away16.57%
    2–1 Correct pick
  14. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home65.69% Draw17.74% Away16.57%
    2–1 Correct pick
  15. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Forfar Athletic Dundee United II
    Home38.93% Draw33.13% Away27.94%
    2–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.