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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5816Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9748Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%7.3%41
10–20%16.0%14.9%195
20–30%25.0%24.0%572
30–40%34.4%33.9%236
40–50%44.4%49.2%179
50–60%54.4%55.6%126
60–70%64.2%62.9%62
70–80%73.8%72.1%43
80–90%85.4%90.9%11
90–100%94.7%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 01 Nov 2026 · 01:21 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home41.29% Draw23.87% Away34.85%
    4–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home41.29% Draw23.86% Away34.85%
    4–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home41.29% Draw23.86% Away34.85%
    4–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home51.97% Draw23.99% Away24.04%
    4–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home51.97% Draw23.99% Away24.04%
    4–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home51.97% Draw23.99% Away24.04%
    4–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home52.62% Draw23.76% Away23.62%
    4–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home51.25% Draw24.01% Away24.74%
    4–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home50.12% Draw25.29% Away24.59%
    4–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home50.12% Draw25.29% Away24.59%
    4–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home47.68% Draw22.44% Away29.87%
    4–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home47.68% Draw22.44% Away29.87%
    4–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home47.68% Draw22.44% Away29.87%
    4–0 Correct pick
  14. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home46.46% Draw22.45% Away31.09%
    4–0 Correct pick
  15. Published Regionalliga - Ost · Austria
    Fach-Donaufeld Gloggnitz
    Home31.81% Draw33.72% Away34.47%
    4–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.