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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5859Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9818Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.6%2.0%50
10–20%16.2%16.7%203
20–30%24.9%25.7%557
30–40%34.5%33.3%237
40–50%44.8%45.7%184
50–60%54.8%52.7%131
60–70%65.0%60.6%66
70–80%74.7%81.5%27
80–90%84.6%92.3%13
90–100%95.5%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 20:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home30.94% Draw24.91% Away44.15%
    1–2 Correct pick
  2. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home33.27% Draw25.10% Away41.63%
    1–2 Correct pick
  3. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home29.49% Draw24.30% Away46.21%
    1–2 Correct pick
  4. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home29.49% Draw24.30% Away46.21%
    1–2 Correct pick
  5. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home29.49% Draw24.30% Away46.21%
    1–2 Correct pick
  6. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home29.49% Draw24.30% Away46.21%
    1–2 Correct pick
  7. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home29.49% Draw24.30% Away46.21%
    1–2 Correct pick
  8. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home29.49% Draw24.30% Away46.21%
    1–2 Correct pick
  9. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home29.49% Draw24.30% Away46.21%
    1–2 Correct pick
  10. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home29.07% Draw24.30% Away46.63%
    1–2 Correct pick
  11. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home40.29% Draw20.33% Away39.38%
    1–2 Missed
  12. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home40.29% Draw20.33% Away39.38%
    1–2 Missed
  13. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home43.49% Draw20.33% Away36.19%
    1–2 Missed
  14. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Atvidabergs FF
    Home27.78% Draw32.88% Away39.34%
    1–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.