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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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481graded matches
0.5675Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9568Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 19 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.2%5.7%70
10–20%16.4%16.8%197
20–30%24.8%24.3%526
30–40%34.3%30.5%223
40–50%44.7%48.1%187
50–60%54.9%56.6%113
60–70%64.6%65.7%70
70–80%75.5%80.0%25
80–90%83.9%78.9%19
90–100%95.4%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (481)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 16:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home57.44% Draw21.94% Away20.63%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home57.18% Draw22.00% Away20.82%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home64.00% Draw19.98% Away16.02%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home64.00% Draw19.98% Away16.02%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home64.00% Draw19.98% Away16.02%
    1–0 Correct pick
  6. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home64.00% Draw19.98% Away16.02%
    1–0 Correct pick
  7. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home64.00% Draw19.98% Away16.02%
    1–0 Correct pick
  8. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home64.00% Draw19.98% Away16.02%
    1–0 Correct pick
  9. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home55.84% Draw23.48% Away20.67%
    1–0 Correct pick
  10. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home56.15% Draw23.32% Away20.53%
    1–0 Correct pick
  11. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home58.89% Draw21.90% Away19.21%
    1–0 Correct pick
  12. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home58.89% Draw21.90% Away19.21%
    1–0 Correct pick
  13. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home63.52% Draw21.89% Away14.59%
    1–0 Correct pick
  14. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    B 93 Thisted FC
    Home52.38% Draw33.40% Away14.22%
    1–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.