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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5885Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9901Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%7.7%39
10–20%15.9%12.7%197
20–30%25.2%25.8%589
30–40%34.6%32.9%225
40–50%44.9%49.2%177
50–60%54.9%57.1%126
60–70%64.8%56.0%75
70–80%73.9%82.1%28
80–90%85.0%87.5%8
90–100%92.9%83.3%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 11:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home12.57% Draw15.66% Away71.76%
    0–6 Correct pick
  2. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home12.54% Draw15.68% Away71.78%
    0–6 Correct pick
  3. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home12.54% Draw15.68% Away71.78%
    0–6 Correct pick
  4. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home12.54% Draw15.68% Away71.78%
    0–6 Correct pick
  5. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home12.54% Draw15.68% Away71.78%
    0–6 Correct pick
  6. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home13.64% Draw16.22% Away70.14%
    0–6 Correct pick
  7. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home15.27% Draw16.97% Away67.76%
    0–6 Correct pick
  8. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home15.29% Draw17.35% Away67.36%
    0–6 Correct pick
  9. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home15.29% Draw17.35% Away67.36%
    0–6 Correct pick
  10. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home15.29% Draw17.35% Away67.36%
    0–6 Correct pick
  11. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home23.80% Draw17.24% Away58.96%
    0–6 Correct pick
  12. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home23.80% Draw17.24% Away58.96%
    0–6 Correct pick
  13. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home23.80% Draw17.24% Away58.96%
    0–6 Correct pick
  14. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home23.80% Draw17.24% Away58.96%
    0–6 Correct pick
  15. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Åkra Madla
    Home11.70% Draw32.78% Away55.52%
    0–6 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.