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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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499graded matches
0.5858Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9840Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%4.0%50
10–20%15.4%16.3%160
20–30%25.1%24.9%587
30–40%34.6%35.7%286
40–50%44.6%44.1%195
50–60%53.8%50.0%104
60–70%64.6%63.9%61
70–80%75.2%83.3%36
80–90%84.9%92.3%13
90–100%94.7%80.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 17 Oct 2026 · 18:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home77.03% Draw13.85% Away9.12%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home77.03% Draw13.85% Away9.12%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home77.28% Draw14.23% Away8.49%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home77.11% Draw14.31% Away8.58%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home77.11% Draw14.31% Away8.58%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home77.11% Draw14.31% Away8.58%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home77.04% Draw14.35% Away8.61%
    2–2 Missed
  8. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home74.53% Draw15.37% Away10.10%
    2–2 Missed
  9. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home74.77% Draw15.26% Away9.98%
    2–2 Missed
  10. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home74.77% Draw15.26% Away9.98%
    2–2 Missed
  11. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home74.77% Draw15.26% Away9.98%
    2–2 Missed
  12. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home78.66% Draw15.29% Away6.05%
    2–2 Missed
  13. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home78.66% Draw15.29% Away6.05%
    2–2 Missed
  14. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home78.66% Draw15.29% Away6.05%
    2–2 Missed
  15. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home79.86% Draw15.15% Away4.99%
    2–2 Missed
  16. Published 2. Division - Group 2 · Norway
    Kjelsås Follo
    Home57.72% Draw32.58% Away9.70%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.