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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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489graded matches
0.5883Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9894Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%7.7%39
10–20%15.9%12.4%201
20–30%25.2%26.1%578
30–40%34.5%33.3%231
40–50%44.8%48.3%174
50–60%54.9%56.7%127
60–70%64.7%52.8%72
70–80%73.6%86.7%30
80–90%84.4%88.9%9
90–100%92.9%83.3%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 09:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home33.21% Draw23.63% Away43.16%
    2–0 Missed
  2. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home33.14% Draw23.46% Away43.40%
    2–0 Missed
  3. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home33.14% Draw23.46% Away43.40%
    2–0 Missed
  4. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home28.45% Draw25.03% Away46.53%
    2–0 Missed
  5. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home28.45% Draw25.03% Away46.53%
    2–0 Missed
  6. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home28.45% Draw25.03% Away46.53%
    2–0 Missed
  7. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home28.66% Draw25.07% Away46.27%
    2–0 Missed
  8. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home29.40% Draw25.16% Away45.44%
    2–0 Missed
  9. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home29.34% Draw25.20% Away45.46%
    2–0 Missed
  10. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home29.34% Draw25.20% Away45.46%
    2–0 Missed
  11. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home29.34% Draw25.20% Away45.46%
    2–0 Missed
  12. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home40.07% Draw27.00% Away32.93%
    2–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home40.07% Draw27.00% Away32.93%
    2–0 Correct pick
  14. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home40.07% Draw27.00% Away32.93%
    2–0 Correct pick
  15. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home40.07% Draw27.00% Away32.93%
    2–0 Correct pick
  16. Published Second League A - Division A Silver · Russia
    Torpedo Miass Tyumen
    Home28.66% Draw33.19% Away38.15%
    2–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.