The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

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Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

499graded matches

0.5638Multiclass Brier (0–2)

0.9478Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table

Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability band	Mean predicted	Observed frequency	Outcome observations
0–10%	5.9%	2.8%	72
10–20%	16.1%	18.6%	210
20–30%	24.4%	23.0%	560
30–40%	35.1%	35.5%	217
40–50%	45.0%	51.2%	170
50–60%	54.6%	46.4%	125
60–70%	64.3%	63.5%	74
70–80%	75.1%	78.9%	38
80–90%	83.8%	95.0%	20
90–100%	94.1%	100.0%	11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 26 Sep 2026 · 11:17 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

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Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.

Versions for this fixture

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