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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5549Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9373Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%1.8%55
10–20%16.0%12.1%198
20–30%24.8%24.4%558
30–40%34.8%38.0%237
40–50%44.7%40.3%181
50–60%54.3%54.6%119
60–70%64.5%75.0%64
70–80%74.7%88.2%34
80–90%82.9%85.7%21
90–100%92.8%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 16 Oct 2026 · 22:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Dos Hermanas Linense
    Home60.25% Draw25.59% Away14.16%
    3–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Dos Hermanas Linense
    Home41.98% Draw33.45% Away24.57%
    3–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Dos Hermanas Linense
    Home41.98% Draw33.45% Away24.57%
    3–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Dos Hermanas Linense
    Home41.98% Draw33.45% Away24.57%
    3–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Dos Hermanas Linense
    Home41.98% Draw33.45% Away24.57%
    3–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.