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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5909Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9904Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%0.0%35
10–20%16.1%17.5%206
20–30%25.1%25.2%572
30–40%34.4%31.3%233
40–50%44.8%50.0%178
50–60%54.7%54.9%133
60–70%64.9%55.4%74
70–80%73.6%80.8%26
80–90%84.6%100.0%6
90–100%93.7%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 01:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Thai League 1 · Thailand
    Rayong FC Ratchaburi
    Home29.38% Draw26.47% Away44.15%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Thai League 1 · Thailand
    Rayong FC Ratchaburi
    Home23.76% Draw28.83% Away47.41%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Thai League 1 · Thailand
    Rayong FC Ratchaburi
    Home24.86% Draw28.45% Away46.70%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Thai League 1 · Thailand
    Rayong FC Ratchaburi
    Home22.32% Draw32.33% Away45.35%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Thai League 1 · Thailand
    Rayong FC Ratchaburi
    Home22.32% Draw32.33% Away45.35%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.