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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5930Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9914Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%0.0%29
10–20%16.3%15.4%175
20–30%25.2%25.2%606
30–40%34.6%32.5%255
40–50%44.7%47.7%216
50–60%54.5%56.5%108
60–70%64.7%64.7%68
70–80%74.2%72.7%22
80–90%83.7%81.8%11
90–100%91.8%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 10 Oct 2026 · 20:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Division 1 · Saudi Arabia
    Al Zulfi Al-Raed
    Home36.21% Draw37.13% Away26.66%
    4–0 Missed
  2. Published Division 1 · Saudi Arabia
    Al Zulfi Al-Raed
    Home36.17% Draw37.09% Away26.74%
    4–0 Missed
  3. Published Division 1 · Saudi Arabia
    Al Zulfi Al-Raed
    Home34.63% Draw35.61% Away29.76%
    4–0 Missed
  4. Published Division 1 · Saudi Arabia
    Al Zulfi Al-Raed
    Home34.63% Draw35.61% Away29.76%
    4–0 Missed
  5. Published Division 1 · Saudi Arabia
    Al Zulfi Al-Raed
    Home34.63% Draw35.61% Away29.76%
    4–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.