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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5434Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9209Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%0.0%50
10–20%15.9%9.9%223
20–30%25.0%25.5%549
30–40%34.6%34.8%227
40–50%45.0%42.0%188
50–60%54.5%56.9%109
60–70%64.7%76.8%69
70–80%74.6%88.6%44
80–90%82.5%93.8%16
90–100%93.6%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 16 Oct 2026 · 15:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Division One League · Ghana
    Eleven Wonders Mighty Royals
    Home35.92% Draw23.82% Away40.26%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published Division One League · Ghana
    Eleven Wonders Mighty Royals
    Home33.71% Draw29.80% Away36.48%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published Division One League · Ghana
    Eleven Wonders Mighty Royals
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  4. Published Division One League · Ghana
    Eleven Wonders Mighty Royals
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  5. Published Division One League · Ghana
    Eleven Wonders Mighty Royals
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.