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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5533Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9362Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%8.7%92
10–20%15.8%13.3%256
20–30%24.6%24.9%497
30–40%34.8%34.4%192
40–50%44.7%46.8%154
50–60%54.8%53.4%103
60–70%64.4%65.6%90
70–80%74.3%76.9%52
80–90%85.5%79.3%29
90–100%94.3%100.0%11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 03:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Third League - Northwest · Bulgaria
    Yantra Polski Trambesh Partizan
    Home31.94% Draw31.85% Away36.21%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published Third League - Northwest · Bulgaria
    Yantra Polski Trambesh Partizan
    Home31.94% Draw31.85% Away36.21%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published Third League - Northwest · Bulgaria
    Yantra Polski Trambesh Partizan
    Home31.94% Draw31.85% Away36.21%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published Third League - Northwest · Bulgaria
    Yantra Polski Trambesh Partizan
    Home31.74% Draw31.95% Away36.31%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.