The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

491graded matches

0.5903Multiclass Brier (0–2)

0.9933Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table

Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability band	Mean predicted	Observed frequency	Outcome observations
0–10%	6.5%	12.2%	74
10–20%	15.9%	13.7%	204
20–30%	24.9%	25.6%	544
30–40%	34.3%	36.7%	221
40–50%	44.9%	43.7%	174
50–60%	54.5%	53.0%	115
60–70%	64.6%	63.6%	66
70–80%	75.0%	74.0%	50
80–90%	83.5%	64.7%	17
90–100%	93.6%	87.5%	8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 14:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.

Versions for this fixture

Get the full match analysis

Share this page