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Frozen pre-match forecast · #93483

Harstad VS Skedsmo

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
02 Oct 2026 · 05:03 UTC
Match kickoff
04 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
52.41%
Draw
20.86%
Away
26.72%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.9724
Log loss
1.5672

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
02 Oct 2026 · 05:03 UTC
SHA-256
377438fcad9c2e9e3575c681152ad078cd3a061ef0a50b4ff8f0a98bd505f8ec

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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