Frozen pre-match forecast · #90307
Manchester City W VS Arsenal W
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 01 Oct 2026 · 05:03 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 04 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 35.95%
- Draw
- 24.75%
- Away
- 39.30%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.6259
- Log loss
- 1.0230
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 01 Oct 2026 · 05:03 UTC
- SHA-256
- 32771a6b9f60a92141011e7c6f0c7110d470512ffc7b783ff15d375a5f023921
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.