Frozen pre-match forecast · #86321
Croatia VS England
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 30 Sep 2026 · 05:02 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 03 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC
- Record status
- Forecast retained
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 40.00%
- Draw
- 20.00%
- Away
- 40.00%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
Waiting for the final result
This forecast is already retained. Grading appears once a final regulation score is confirmed.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 30 Sep 2026 · 05:02 UTC
- SHA-256
- e5e29a269bc4f8f672bfab8ae7d29de8046d0ce8b184e5d725a05af36a3adb84
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.