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Frozen pre-match forecast · #85347

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla VS Team

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
30 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
Match kickoff
02 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
41.87%
Draw
30.33%
Away
27.79%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.5071
Log loss
0.8705

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
30 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
SHA-256
2e6c8226bd018996f8072e43fb99b9db8387c921f2c6b825f9cb385c8aa219c3

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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