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Frozen pre-match forecast · #83288

Nimes VS Hyères

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
29 Sep 2026 · 05:01 UTC
Match kickoff
03 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
56.40%
Draw
24.58%
Away
19.02%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.9231
Log loss
1.4032

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
29 Sep 2026 · 05:01 UTC
SHA-256
078c39217e0c937f685ab5d5bc2b8141aa1a3be059c88482348f7ff21cb81390

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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