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Frozen pre-match forecast · #82138

Madla VS Viking

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
29 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
Match kickoff
01 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
4.05%
Draw
8.35%
Away
87.60%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

0 – 390-minute result
Brier score
0.0240
Log loss
0.1324

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
29 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
SHA-256
2be3411c2c7039da71a09655e706be628844016b006b2efb91f2e30157f01d11

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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