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Frozen pre-match forecast · #819

Ferro 2 VS Platense Res.

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
16 Sep 2026 · 05:08 UTC
Match kickoff
16 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
33.8%
Draw
31.4%
Away
34.8%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 190-minute result
Brier score
0.7055
Log loss
1.1577

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
ML_composition_v8:Advanced_joint_form_v69
Captured at
16 Sep 2026 · 05:08 UTC
SHA-256
90a458f3618ed91a62972ace68ffebcd7184db8c5ada43e68851498d4ebf8911

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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