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Frozen pre-match forecast · #80275

Campo Grande VS Petrópolis

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
28 Sep 2026 · 07:32 UTC
Match kickoff
03 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
40.03%
Draw
29.89%
Away
30.08%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

0 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.7423
Log loss
1.2076

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
28 Sep 2026 · 07:32 UTC
SHA-256
8a174399b867d5d1e970bc0075e08acf618ff2955f85b66f861d0609ea365807

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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