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Frozen pre-match forecast · #77719

Fauske Sprint VS Harstad

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
27 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Match kickoff
11 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
26.93%
Draw
17.93%
Away
55.14%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 490-minute result
Brier score
0.3059
Log loss
0.5953

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
27 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UTC
SHA-256
b47e63d0cfa1e22e524bf64ec8e99f03bc8e31869a0c59d81b4927d751c4823f

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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