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Frozen pre-match forecast · #76172

Arkonia U19 VS Śląsk Wrocław U19

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
27 Sep 2026 · 05:02 UTC
Match kickoff
03 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
30.52%
Draw
27.81%
Away
41.67%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.7879
Log loss
1.2798

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
27 Sep 2026 · 05:02 UTC
SHA-256
3b1b980948a9bd3b985ad3fdd8a596fdd7b8563ed0d34cd23a28cd035f1a7630

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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