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Frozen pre-match forecast · #75060

Conegliano VS LME

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
27 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
Match kickoff
27 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
39.96%
Draw
29.99%
Away
30.04%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

0 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.7391
Log loss
1.2025

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
27 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
SHA-256
e669d11a521529204c4bbf6c23ba3ba021829d09ade09183b0f5a0c58ab86a4d

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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