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Frozen pre-match forecast · #73616

Orbit College VS Highbury

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Match kickoff
10 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
40.24%
Draw
31.24%
Away
28.52%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.7161
Log loss
1.1635

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
26 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UTC
SHA-256
9fbe383986a37061182543a1553b7a0121e529de2e9d7d7687bcea6a1c8a99d2

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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