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Frozen pre-match forecast · #72452

Central Stallions VS Ulaangom City

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 05:02 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 08:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
94.78%
Draw
3.90%
Away
1.32%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

4 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.0044
Log loss
0.0536

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
26 Sep 2026 · 05:02 UTC
SHA-256
ba4c2580579fb0f9b45cc758c89c18fb7e7e2501863d0188144d01df520bb734

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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