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Frozen pre-match forecast · #66656

Auerbach VS Eilenburg

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
25 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
Match kickoff
25 Sep 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
33.74%
Draw
23.99%
Away
42.28%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.6753
Log loss
1.0866

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
25 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
SHA-256
af5b1d2614f765d0221d63a0e4bbf759b81f4b38e6c94a48cb909b23a01cb111

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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