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Frozen pre-match forecast · #64673

Grbalj VS Rudar

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
24 Sep 2026 · 05:02 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
57.01%
Draw
23.90%
Away
19.09%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.2784
Log loss
0.5619

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
24 Sep 2026 · 05:02 UTC
SHA-256
ece313dd240ab18c3ea61a9bade4726306a4bb780f5b1146ba8406ca73cd5ea7

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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