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Frozen pre-match forecast · #63818

Juventus W VS Napoli W

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
24 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 10:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
77.21%
Draw
15.61%
Away
7.18%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.0815
Log loss
0.2586

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
24 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
SHA-256
77c3597693c0b4bdd8a25807a59a5e7f5b5dfb47dba303c485c8c6466608b198

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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