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Frozen pre-match forecast · #604

Tritium VS Villa Valle

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
16 Sep 2026 · 05:04 UTC
Match kickoff
16 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
26.8%
Draw
37.1%
Away
36.1%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 190-minute result
Brier score
0.5983
Log loss
0.9924

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
ML_composition_v8:Advanced_joint_form_v69
Captured at
16 Sep 2026 · 05:04 UTC
SHA-256
2c2c77ef069021dcd65b55193754c47cbfb733831cf1909f5a72938db946dbdc

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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