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Frozen pre-match forecast · #55628

Backnang VS Bahlinger SC

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 08:29 UTC
Match kickoff
03 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
48.18%
Draw
22.68%
Away
29.14%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.4049
Log loss
0.7302

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v4
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 08:29 UTC
SHA-256
a5bc6b31c071b11d39f369dfc7d3b02656b47a970be01948a753470cc3d4ec60

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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