Frozen pre-match forecast · #54543
Castro VS Atlético Mineros
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 23 Sep 2026 · 08:28 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 27 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 57.52%
- Draw
- 23.91%
- Away
- 18.57%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 1.0511
- Log loss
- 1.6836
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v4
- Captured at
- 23 Sep 2026 · 08:28 UTC
- SHA-256
- af8d23f4872b54d03a3bc7f21a27c5f4f7512e0dcd1826d2faf48573c4dd6f0e
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.