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Frozen pre-match forecast · #53386

Ross County VS Hearts U21

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 08:27 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
92.91%
Draw
5.14%
Away
1.95%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

14 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.0080
Log loss
0.0735

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v4
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 08:27 UTC
SHA-256
cd7c3dbff4e523135deb2a3476101d6cde79df1a764b3a3069c44877327d04dc

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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