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Frozen pre-match forecast · #52908

IF Ready VS SF Grei

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 08:27 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 11:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
78.52%
Draw
11.68%
Away
9.80%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 390-minute result
Brier score
1.4438
Log loss
2.3228

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v4
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 08:27 UTC
SHA-256
d236f86ea872e200d8fabd495dd7945126f98ae58a191a62fbe3482c059488b5

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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