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Frozen pre-match forecast · #52285

Barra VS Nação

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 08:26 UTC
Match kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
69.35%
Draw
19.83%
Away
10.82%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 390-minute result
Brier score
1.1354
Log loss
1.6180

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v4
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 08:26 UTC
SHA-256
3488fc02d75090a139450070f2afefec53d602b3d711f54320a2465aac33eb75

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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