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Frozen pre-match forecast · #48183

Izarra VS Beti Kozkor

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 07:52 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
70.56%
Draw
18.52%
Away
10.92%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

4 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.1329
Log loss
0.3487

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v3
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 07:52 UTC
SHA-256
b0324b84661f80e23c0e08c6e74fc253ede4828b0b099478880445fedf505595

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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