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Frozen pre-match forecast · #47453

IF Ready VS SF Grei

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 07:52 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 11:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
78.14%
Draw
11.84%
Away
10.03%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 390-minute result
Brier score
1.4340
Log loss
2.2997

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v3
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 07:52 UTC
SHA-256
5ff45c55f47d655deec01be4e789f2ec15b8e42102eff1cae14705145865f6d7

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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