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Frozen pre-match forecast · #4643

Brighton W VS Charlton Athletic W

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
17 Sep 2026 · 02:03 UTC
Match kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 18:45 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
42.22%
Draw
29.05%
Away
28.73%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

4 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.5008
Log loss
0.8623

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
17 Sep 2026 · 02:03 UTC
SHA-256
4212dde75c36fbae3babff6ae62b333bd2b98f566e25f9b02fe34af87710f0cd

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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