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Frozen pre-match forecast · #44574

Arkonia U19 VS Śląsk Wrocław U19

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 07:40 UTC
Match kickoff
03 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
32.76%
Draw
29.37%
Away
37.87%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.7496
Log loss
1.2252

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v2
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 07:40 UTC
SHA-256
e8743577411c09add39a5ae0e8cd9c71972c011531561fd0bf5266422370102c

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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